There are people, (I would refer to them as idiots, but that would be an insult to idiots) who are not only predicting a second civil war, but are beating the drums saying; “Bring it on!” That is not only unfortunate, it is terminally stupid.
We are all Tony Soprano today. We’ve tried to reason with Phil Leotardo. We’ve tried to compromise. We’ve tried to maintain the cooperative institutions of Our Thing. But the guy won’t take “yes” for an answer. He wants it ALL.
Do we settle with the guy we hate? Do we voluntarily pay the heavy price for breaking the “norms” of conflict with a guy who we suspect wouldn’t hesitate to break any norm at all? We are at the precipice of an enormous crossroad in American politics.
But what if it’s not a choice at all? What if the choice has already been made for us? What if we are immersed in a competitive equilibrium of a competitive game, where the only rational choice is to go to the mattresses? To do unto others as they would do unto you … but to do it first. What then? You know what’s like a civil war?
Go to Wikipedia and look up Biafra, look up Kosovo, look up South Africa. Consider the following narrative:
“And so it came to pass that in the late days of empire, both Rome and America waged remote control wars through vassal states and provincial “citizens”, wars that were no longer debated by the Senate but were announced by administrative fiat alongside a schedule of entertaining games and pleasing economic distributions, wars that could last for decades in farther and farther flung corners of the empire, wars that were all about naked commercial interest even as they were gussied up with strong words of patriotism.
It took the Romans about four centuries to officially exhaust themselves.
Four centuries of mostly ridiculousness. Four centuries of profitable revenge. Four centuries of a competitive equilibrium in a competitive game.
Has this happened before in American history? Hard to say for sure but I think yes. The first time in the lead-up to the first Civil War over the issue of slavery and States Rights. Then again in the period leading up to World War II over the issue of the Great Depression. I really don’t think it was an accident that both of these widening differences of belief in American politics ended in a big war.
I think that’s how this widening difference in political beliefs ultimately resolves itself, too. In a big war, on American soil, neighbor against neighbor and brother against brother.
There will be no winning centrist politician bringing us together. There will be no consensus policies around which the entire body politic can coalesce. We have been played, programmed and polarized into an “Us” vs “Them” and it will come down to needing to vanquish “THEM”.
We’ll need a big war with an Other to get out of this.
So one way or another, that’s what we’re gonna get. It’s no longer “if” but “when”.
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