I’m becoming
extremely concerned we are massively unprepared for the next epidemic.
People imagine that
any kind of epidemic that occurs today can be more or less mitigated through
modern public health infrastructure, stocks of vaccines and antivirals, and
basic quarantining measures.
The issue is that in
modern, densely populated cities, a sufficiently advanced pathogen would be
capable of infecting the vast majority of inhabitants in weeks, before any
health measures could have an effect. The population density is enough that
current quarantining techniques used in cases like smallpox would be completely
ineffective. Antivirals have historically proven ineffective and hard to
disseminate while our current vaccine stocks might not work at all.
Currently computer
simulations indicate that a dangerous enough pathogen could effectively destroy
a city like Los Angeles in a few months. “Destroyed” in the sense
that emergency services are shut down, medical services are shut down, all economic
output ceases and over 30-60% of the population is wiped out.
In short, a small
nation-state or even well-funded terrorist organization could easily reduce the
US to the state of a third world nation with. Yet no one seems to give a shit
There has been a lot
of work done with engineering viruses for specific functions such as gene
therapy. The main problem and the reason a lot of this research is highly
restricted is that many of the same techniques for engineering a virus to kill
off all mosquitoes can be applied to almost any target, including hominids.
That and the risk of
spillover. You might intend to wipe out mosquitoes, but you end up wiping out a
whole class of insects causing complete ecological collapse.
Of course if you’re a terrorist that probably sounds delightful. I’m obviously biased but I considered biological agents, especially viruses, to the be the most dangerous thing in the world today, even more so than nuclear weapons due to their relative affordability and ease of dispersal.
China is one major
source of concern. Not only is the place a massive breeding ground for novel
agents due to poor agricultural practices, the proximity of humans to animals
ensures that novel strains of influenza and other viruses will hop to humans
and spread like wildfire.
It literally only
takes one mutation of one virus to unleash a pandemic. Every infectious pig or
bird is a little viral containment vessel that could birth the next plague.
Though I’d be
surprised if China is actively doing large-scale tests on their population, it
wouldn’t surprise me. That said, China’s biological weapons program is much
larger than the public or even experts in the field are aware of. They are
almost certainly genetically engineering certain viruses (smallpox) to be
vaccine immune, but they are probably also engineering them to be more lethal
agents in general. We really don’t know the full scale of China’s biological
weapons program but I would bet you wouldn’t be able to sleep well if you knew
its full scope.
But theoretically,
any well-stocked university lab with trained professionals would be capable of
genetically modifying a virus to do all sorts of things.
The most difficult
thing would be gaining access to some of the more virulent agent such as
smallpox or Ebola. Most of these are only available in incredibly well guarded
facilities in just a few countries.
North Korea likely
has a decently sized biological weapons program as well as a cache of some of
the more deadly pathogens. A desperate worker there could theoretically smuggle
out any number of terrible diseases and sell them on the black market for $10-$100k,
which for a lot of terrorist organizations would be a pittance.
Publicly, we have
ceased production of biological weapons. Privately, we already know how to make
effective dispersal munitions, and the kind of viral engineering work we do for
the purpose of “good” can just as easily be repurposed for evil. If
the US military wanted it could quite easily engineer and disperse a literal
apocalyptic plague for less money than it takes to build an F-35.
Hypothetically, if
our government turned fully tyrannical and evil a-la Nazi Germany, we could
have a very robust biological weapons program producing munitions within a year
or so… if we don’t already.
I’ve run across a
few documents that scared me pretty badly.
One was regarding what are called chimera viruses and research work done in the Soviet Union and more recently in North Korea (hypothesized).
The simple idea of a
chimera virus is you combine two viral agents into one, which as you can
imagine would make it easy to create a virus with more than 95% mortality rate.
The scarier part is
that a chimera virus can theoretically have multiple traits that make it far
superior as a biological weapon, and the traits can present at different time
periods. For example, Ebola is quite deadly, but it’s actually pretty hard to spread
due to needing direct blood contact.
So what would happen
if you combined Ebola with say, a common flu? With sufficiently advanced
engineering, you could have an Ebola that initially only presents as a standard
flu for the first 1-2 weeks. People would continue to take flights, go to work
etc thinking it was just a relatively harmless flu.
Then two weeks later
you’d have massive “mysterious” outbreaks of Ebola all across the
world. Millions of people would suddenly present with symptoms of Ebola and be
freaking out.
Meanwhile, people
who still had the “flu” would continue taking flights, going to work
etc.
By the time we
discovered that the flu and Ebola outbreaks were all a part of the same virus,
you’d be looking at easily over 100 million dead, completely collapsed
infrastructures etc. It would be unprecedented in modern times.
Hypothetically there
was a country that wanted to create a doomsday weapon that would function even
beyond the deterrent capabilities of nuclear weapons. Basically a “Screw
you, world” kind of weapon.
If certain
dissidents are to be believed, this weapon has been produced, likely still
exists, and may have even been used at some point.
The key feature of
the virus is the incubation period. The claim is they extended the incubation
period of a certain highly lethal virus to not days, or weeks, but possibly a
decade or more, (Think AIDS).
During this extended
incubation, the number of virus particles is low enough that it shows zero
symptoms, and it would be undetectable unless you were actually looking for it.
While transmission rates would be quite low, over the course of a couple years
it should be able to easily spread throughout an entire population. A literal
100% rate of infection.
Now this has been
known about in the scientific and military communities for a while.
Well one group had
the idea of testing this. Is there a latent and highly lethal virus lying
dormant in the population?
They took blood
samples from people across the US as well as some Western European countries
and discovered something quite disturbing. A mysterious virus, referred to
internally as “pathogen X” present in something like 95% of the
samples.
It’s an unusually large virus with a very particular shape, like a large toroid, ( a toroid is a surface of revolution with a hole in the middle, like a doughnut, forming a solid body. The axis of revolution passes through the hole), with spiky protuberances along the central axis.
The genome is HUGE,
and that makes knowing its actual payload at this stage almost impossible. It
shares significant similarities with smallpox, Lassa, influenza, and HIV, but
it neither looks nor behaves like any of these.
So the conclusion at
this point is an uncomfortable one. You are likely infected by a mysterious
virus that might be nothing, or it may become active at some point and almost
certainly kill you.
Basic sanitary
practices work quite well, (sort of). Keep your house clean, and if possible
the surrounding area. Don’t over clean, though.
If you live in a dense city, it’s not the worst idea to wear a medical mask in very crowded spaces (buses/subway) and keep a bottle of Purrell on you.
Obviously, getting
away from population dense urban areas before infection would be one of the
best ways to protect yourself. The problem is you and everyone else would have
the same idea so there is no guarantee freeways would even be functional in a
mass panic. You’d need to move quickly after the first signs in the news of
some “Mysterious new illness” started appearing.
Sleep well, kiddies.